{"id":21097,"date":"2025-05-16T06:30:33","date_gmt":"2025-05-16T06:30:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/16\/when-will-altcoin-season-begin\/"},"modified":"2025-05-16T06:30:33","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T06:30:33","slug":"when-will-altcoin-season-begin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/16\/when-will-altcoin-season-begin\/","title":{"rendered":"When Will Altcoin Season Begin?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Bitcoin continues to hover above the $100,000 mark, and capital inflows from ETFs are surging. The biggest question in the crypto market right now is: \u201cWhen will altcoin season truly begin?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Altcoin season is defined as a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin. Historically, major altcoin seasons occurred in 2017 and 2021, coinciding with the boom of ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, and Layer-2 solutions, according to <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Forbes<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During this phase, investment capital typically rotates from Bitcoin into altcoins, triggering sharp price increases, especially for large-cap and mid-cap altcoins \u2013 along with a surge in trading volume and growing FOMO sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Bitcoin_Dominance_A_Key_Indicator\"\/><strong>Bitcoin Dominance: A Key Indicator<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"\/><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the most important indicators for identifying the start of an altcoin season is the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D), which reflects Bitcoin\u2019s market capitalization relative to the entire crypto market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to data from TradingView, BTC.D peaked at 57.8% in late April 2025, before slightly retreating to around 55.2% by mid-May. As of now, TradingView reports that Bitcoin dominance stands at 63%, significantly higher than the 51% level recorded in November 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_152967\" style=\"width: 1825px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><noscript><\/noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-152967\" class=\"lazyload size-full wp-image-152967\" src=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image4-6.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin Dominance: A Key Indicator\" width=\"1815\" height=\"881\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-152967\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow external noreferrer\" data-wpel-link=\"external\">TradingView<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Benjamin Cowen, a well-known cycle analyst, says if BTC.D drops below 52%, <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cthat could be the confirmation signal that altcoin season is underway.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, Cowen also warned: <\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cNot every drop in BTC dominance results in an alt season. What matters is the inflow of new capital into altcoins \u2013 not just internal rotation.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Capital_Flows_and_Market_Sentiment\"\/><strong>Capital Flows and Market Sentiment<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"\/><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data from CoinShares show that investment funds have poured over $14 billion into Bitcoin ETFs since the beginning of 2025. However, inflows into <a href=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/recommends\/binance-trade\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"inline-coin\" data-id=\"ethereum\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><span class=\"inline-coin__symbol\">ETH<\/span><span class=\"inline-coin__price\"\/><\/a> and other altcoins remain significantly lower, accounting for only about 8% of total capital \u2014 reflecting a defensive mindset among institutional investors, who continue to prioritize what they view as the safest asset in the crypto space.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Currently, the ETH\/BTC pair remains stuck in a long-term downtrend that began in late 2021, with the 0.065 level acting as a critical resistance. This threshold is seen as the \u201cconfidence trigger\u201d\u2014a\u201d point at which the market may begin to believe that altcoins are ready to enter a strong upward cycle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Without a decisive breakout above this level, supported by strong volume and confirmation from broader market flows, even a rising Bitcoin price may not be enough to ignite a true altcoin season. In essence, altseason requires more than just bullish sentiment for <a href=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/recommends\/binance-trade\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" class=\"inline-coin\" data-id=\"bitcoin\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\"><span class=\"inline-coin__symbol\">BTC<\/span><span class=\"inline-coin__price\"\/><\/a>, it needs Ethereum to lead the charge.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">As of May 14, ETH\/BTC is hovering around 0.02 \u2013 well below the threshold needed to confirm a trend reversal.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/free-crypto-signals-evening-trader-channel\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Trading with Free Crypto Signals in Evening Trader Channel<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_152968\" style=\"width: 1828px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-152968\" class=\"size-full wp-image-152968\" src=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image5-5.png\" alt=\"Capital Flows and Market Sentiment\" width=\"1818\" height=\"880\"\/><\/noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-152968\" class=\"lazyload size-full wp-image-152968\" src=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image5-5.png\" alt=\"Capital Flows and Market Sentiment\" width=\"1818\" height=\"880\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-152968\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: TradingView<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Quantitative_Indicators_and_On-Chain_Data\"\/><strong>Quantitative Indicators and On-Chain Data<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"\/><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Altcoin Season Index currently stands at 24, signaling \u201cBitcoin Season.\u201d The Altcoin Month Index is at 57, and the Altcoin Year Index is at 27 \u2013 all below the 75-point threshold typically used to confirm an altcoin season.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Do note that these metrics are based on the performance of the top 50 coins (excluding stablecoins and asset-backed tokens) compared to Bitcoin over the past 90 days.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_152942\" style=\"width: 1290px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-152942\" class=\"size-full wp-image-152942\" src=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-16-at-09.17.41.png\" alt=\"Altseason Not Yet Here: Index Remains in the Lows\" width=\"1280\" height=\"613\"\/><\/noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-152942\" class=\"lazyload size-full wp-image-152942\" src=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Screenshot-2025-05-16-at-09.17.41.png\" alt=\"Altseason Not Yet Here: Index Remains in the Lows\" width=\"1280\" height=\"613\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-152942\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: BlockchainCenter<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Followed by Dune Analytics, the number of new active wallets on chains like Solana and Base is rising again. Meanwhile, Ethereum gas fees remain below 30 gwei, indicating that the market hasn\u2019t overheated yet but also suggesting ample room for future growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_152970\" style=\"width: 1645px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-152970\" class=\"size-full wp-image-152970\" src=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image3-15.png\" alt=\"Quantitative Indicators and On-Chain Data\" width=\"1635\" height=\"393\"\/><\/noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-152970\" class=\"lazyload size-full wp-image-152970\" src=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image3-15.png\" alt=\"Quantitative Indicators and On-Chain Data\" width=\"1635\" height=\"393\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-152970\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Dune Analytics<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is currently a sharp divergence in forecasts for the 2025 altcoin season:<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From a bullish perspective, altcoin season may have already begun, as altcoin market capitalization hit $1.89 trillion, surpassing its November 2021 peak of $1.79 trillion. Additionally, the Altcoin Season Index exceeded 75% on December 2, 2024, and stayed above that level for a full week, according to Blockchain Center.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, more cautious views \u2013 like that of Benjamin Cowen, suggest that the altcoin season could be delayed, as BTC dominance remains high (60%) and monetary policy uncertainty lingers. Cowen warns that a lack of fresh capital and unsustainable performance could cause the market to stall.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From a selective outlook, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, believes that only altcoins with strong fundamentals, real revenue, and ETF potential are likely to outperform in this cycle. \u201cThe era when everything goes up is over,\u201d he said, implying a more mature and selective market environment.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/cryptoquant-ceo-new-era-of-bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">CryptoQuant CEO: \u201cA New Era for Bitcoin has Begun\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Key_Drivers_Behind_Altcoin_Season\"\/><strong>Key Drivers Behind Altcoin Season<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"\/><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Institutional capital remains a dominant force in crypto markets. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $65 billion in net inflows as of May 2025, reinforcing BTC\u2019s safe-haven status. However, this trend has also driven Bitcoin dominance above 55%, delaying the capital rotation into altcoins, which typically thrive in risk-on environments.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Several emerging sectors like AI, RWA, and DePIN are drawing investor interest. $VIRTUAL, a leading AI Agent project, has surged 249x, while RWA tokens saw up to 717% growth. Major institutions such as BlackRock and J.P. Morgan are actively piloting tokenized assets. Yet, gains remain concentrated in a few tokens, not enough to lift the broader altcoin market.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite rising narrative hype, true altseason won\u2019t begin unless Ethereum and Solana lead the charge. The ETH\/BTC ratio remains stuck below 0.065, signaling weak risk appetite. While Solana shows strong user traction, its ecosystem alone hasn\u2019t pushed the Altseason Index beyond key breakout levels. Without a strong ETH rally, broad-based altcoin momentum remains limited.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">U.S. interest rates have dropped from 5.25% to 4.19% year-over-year. If the Fed cuts rates further in Q3, it could trigger renewed appetite for risk assets. Meanwhile, political proposals like the U.S. Treasury potentially acquiring 200,000 BTC annually \u2013 if enacted, would significantly boost market sentiment and could catalyze capital inflow into altcoins.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/is-xrp-a-good-investment-in-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">Is XRP a Good Investment in 2025? A Comprehensive Guide for Investors<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_152971\" style=\"width: 1302px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-152971\" class=\"size-full wp-image-152971\" src=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image1-18.png\" alt=\"Key Drivers Behind Altcoin Season\" width=\"1292\" height=\"496\"\/><\/noscript><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-152971\" class=\"lazyload size-full wp-image-152971\" src=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image1-18.png\" alt=\"Key Drivers Behind Altcoin Season\" width=\"1292\" height=\"496\"\/><\/p>\n<p id=\"caption-attachment-152971\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CME Group<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Conclusion\"\/><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"\/><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Taking into account technical indicators, capital flows, macroeconomic factors, and market sentiment, it\u2019s clear that altcoin season has not officially begun, but the foundations for a potential breakout are gradually forming. A slight decline in BTC dominance, a stabilizing ETH\/BTC ratio, whale accumulation, and the emergence of leading narrative tokens are all encouraging signs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, the market still requires further confirmation signals: a clear capital rotation from BTC into altcoins, the return of retail participation, and a rise in FOMO-driven sentiment. The second half of 2025 \u2013 if the Fed cuts interest rates and Ethereum breaks above $3,000, could mark the ideal timing for altcoin season to take off.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/best-crypto-signals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\" data-wpel-link=\"internal\">15+ Best Crypto Signals Telegram Groups in 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/when-will-altcoin-season-begin\/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=when-will-altcoin-season-begin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin continues to hover above the $100,000 mark, and capital inflows from ETFs are surging. The biggest question in the crypto market right now is: \u201cWhen will altcoin season truly begin?\u201d Altcoin season is defined as a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin. Historically, major altcoin seasons occurred in 2017 and 2021, coinciding with the boom [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21098,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true},"categories":[9],"tags":[21],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/nftevening.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/Altcoinss.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21097"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21097"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21097\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21098"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21097"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21097"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21097"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}