<\/h2>\nData from TradingView shows that the MACD histogram on PI\u2019s daily timeframe has significantly decreased and is approaching the 0 level, a level last seen when the price bottomed around $0.13. Additionally, the MACD line and signal line are converging around the -0.005 zone, reflecting a clear weakening of bearish momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/noscript>Pi price + MACD chart (1D). Source: TradingView<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
In technical analysis, a flattening MACD is often viewed as an early signal that selling pressure is fading. However, this factor alone does not confirm a price reversal trend. A stronger confirmation signal would require a bullish crossover\u2014when the MACD line crosses above the signal line. In other words, the market is currently in a state of \u201cpause\u201d rather than \u201creversal.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\nPrice structure remains under pressure<\/b><\/h2>\nAlthough the MACD shows weakening momentum, PI\u2019s higher-timeframe price structure remains in a medium-term downtrend. Since peaking near $0.299 in March, the price has consistently formed lower highs and lower lows before entering a consolidation phase around the $0.16\u2013$0.18 range.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\nPi Price + MACD S\/R chart (4H). Source: TradingView<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Analyzing the 4-hour timeframe combined with the MACD S\/R indicator, the data reveals a series of overlapping resistance levels, with key levels at <\/span>$0.1703 \u2013 $0.1917 \u2013 $0.2071<\/b>, respectively.<\/span><\/p>\nOn the downside, short-term support is identified around $0.157, with a deeper bottom at $0.1309, coinciding with previous lows.<\/span><\/p>\nThis indicates that the downtrend still prevails, and current bounces may only be technical in nature unless the price breaks through key resistance zones.<\/span><\/p>\nLiquidity signals show limited conviction<\/b><\/h2>\nData from CoinMarketCap shows that PI\u2019s liquidity remains limited. PI\u2019s 24-hour trading volume is currently around $13.6 million, down 4.63%, while the <\/span>Vol\/MCap ratio <\/b>is only <\/span>0.77%<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\nThis suggests that trading activity remains low, and there has been no significant increase in buying pressure. In this context, sideways price movement may reflect a \u201cwait-and-see\u201d market sentiment rather than a clear positive trend.<\/span><\/p>\nFurthermore, with a market capitalization of approximately $1.73 billion compared to a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of up to $17.15 billion, PI currently faces a significant gap between circulating supply and maximum supply. This disparity indicates that over <\/span>90%<\/b> of the supply has yet to be released, thereby creating dilution risks and supply pressure in the long term.<\/span><\/p>\nToken unlocks remain a key overhang<\/b><\/h2>\nThe total remaining <\/span>PI tokens<\/b> scheduled for unlocking amount to over <\/span>6.07 billion<\/b>, of which approximately 1.6 billion PI will enter market circulation over the next 12 months, according to data from PiScan.<\/span><\/p>\nMonthly unlock statistics. Source: Piscan<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
On average, about <\/span>18 million PI<\/b> will be unlocked each month, with peak months potentially reaching up to 432 million PI. This means the market will continuously have to absorb a significant amount of new tokens.<\/span><\/p>\nWhile liquidity remains limited, this volume of unlocked tokens could put pressure on the price, especially if it is not accompanied by a corresponding increase in demand.<\/span><\/p>\nNetwork upgrades provide limited but notable support<\/b><\/h2>\nRecently, Pi Network announced the successful deployment of the mainnet upgrade to Protocol 21.<\/span><\/p>\n
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