{"id":24076,"date":"2026-05-30T10:28:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-30T10:28:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/30\/40-of-bitcoin-holders-are-underwater-is-a-2022-style-bear-market-returning-nft-plazas\/"},"modified":"2026-05-30T10:28:14","modified_gmt":"2026-05-30T10:28:14","slug":"40-of-bitcoin-holders-are-underwater-is-a-2022-style-bear-market-returning-nft-plazas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/30\/40-of-bitcoin-holders-are-underwater-is-a-2022-style-bear-market-returning-nft-plazas\/","title":{"rendered":"40% of Bitcoin Holders Are Underwater \u2014 Is a 2022-Style Bear Market Returning? – NFT Plazas"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Bitcoin is under mounting pressure in 2026, and the numbers behind the pain are becoming harder to ignore. With roughly 40% of the circulating supply now held at a loss, analysts and on-chain data firms are drawing uncomfortable comparisons to the brutal bear market of 2022 \u2014 one that wiped out more than 75% of Bitcoin\u2019s value over the course of a year. The question now dividing the crypto community is whether the current downturn is a temporary reset or the beginning of something much deeper.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Scale of the Losses<\/span><\/h2>\n

Bitcoin<\/a> recently traded near $73,469, down more than 31% over the past year, following a steep decline from its late-2025 peak above $120,000. That peak, reached in October 2025, now feels like a distant memory for many holders who bought in near the top.<\/span><\/p>\n

On-chain analyst \u201cDarkfost\u201d put the situation in plain terms: at prices around $73,700, roughly 40% of the total Bitcoin supply was acquired at higher levels and is currently held at a loss. That means nearly half of all coins in circulation are underwater \u2014 a figure that hasn\u2019t been seen at this scale since the depths of the last bear market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Glassnode has assessed the current situation as comparable to the market structure seen in the second quarter of 2022, noting that offsetting losses of this magnitude typically requires a transfer of assets from investors sitting on losses to new buyers entering at lower price levels. Long-term investors \u2014 those holding for more than 155 days \u2014 have seen their daily realized losses climb to $200 million, which Glassnode characterizes as confirmation of active stop-loss selling.<\/span><\/p>\n

Around 40% of the BTC supply is at a loss within the current range-bound market structure. (Source: Darkfost)<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Whale Accumulation Has Reversed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Perhaps more alarming than retail losses is what is happening at the top of the market. CryptoQuant, one of the most closely watched on-chain analytics firms, released a report highlighting a troubling shift in behavior among Bitcoin\u2019s largest holders.<\/span><\/p>\n

Annual balance growth for whale accounts \u2014 those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC \u2014 has turned negative in the fastest contraction seen this year. Monthly balance growth has been flat since February, suggesting a shift from accumulation toward mild distribution. CryptoQuant described this pattern as mirroring the early stages of the 2022 bear market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, \u201cdolphin\u201d accounts holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC \u2014 a category dominated by exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries \u2014 are still growing in annual terms, but momentum has stalled sharply. Monthly balance growth is near zero across both cohorts, with dolphin balances printing successive lower highs since September 2025. Historically, CryptoQuant notes, these periods have preceded sustained price weakness.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Monthly Close That Could Define the Narrative<\/span><\/h2>\n

The market is now watching May\u2019s monthly close with unusual intensity. Analysts at Rand Group flagged that Bitcoin has never posted three consecutive green monthly closes during a bear market \u2014 and after January and February finished in the red, followed by green closes in March and April, May\u2019s outcome carries significant weight.<\/span><\/p>\n

A red monthly close for May would strengthen the view that the recent bounce was losing momentum and lend further support to the bear-market comparison. With BTC still slightly negative on the month heading into the final days of May, the outcome remains uncertain.<\/span><\/p>\n

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Chart (Source: CoinMarketCap)<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

Is This 2022 All Over Again?<\/span><\/h2>\n

The last full bear market ran from November 2021 to November 2022 \u2014 a 12-to-14-month cycle that produced a 77% drawdown from peak to trough. The current cycle, now roughly seven months in from Bitcoin\u2019s October 2025 high, has already seen a 40\u201350% drawdown, with on-chain indicators at what some analysts describe as capitulation levels.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

CryptoQuant first pointed to bear market conditions as early as December 2025, citing buyer exhaustion and noting the drop was comparable to March 2022, when crypto markets entered a sustained downturn. Bitcoin ultimately finished 2025 in the red \u2014 only the fourth time in its history it has done so.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, analysts are not uniformly bearish. HashKey Group researcher Tim Sun told Cointelegraph that while the highest proportion of supply in unrealized loss recently approached 50% \u2014 the worst reading since the 2022 bear market bottom \u2014 a more realistic floor could be found in the $55,000\u2013$60,000 range, provided geopolitical tensions do not escalate further and the Federal Reserve does not resume rate hikes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysts at XTB note that as long as Bitcoin trades below $90,000, sellers retain the structural advantage, with a potential bear-market bottom possible in Q4 2026 \u2014 a timeline consistent with the historic four-year halving cycle.<\/span><\/p>\n

What Sets 2026 Apart<\/span><\/h2>\n

The current episode differs from 2022 in one critical respect: the 2022 collapse was driven by a cascade of structural failures \u2014 leveraged lenders, collapsed algorithmic stablecoins, and exchange insolvencies. The 2026 downturn, by contrast, appears rooted in macro uncertainty, excess leverage being flushed out, and fading post-halving momentum.<\/span><\/p>\n

Most institutional voices \u2014 including CryptoQuant, Compass Point, and Pantera \u2014 expect the bear phase to resolve in 2026, with a bottom likely in the $56,000\u2013$68,000 zone and recovery later in the year or into 2027. Structural tailwinds such as institutional adoption, ETF infrastructure, and tokenization are seen as still intact.<\/span><\/p>\n

For now, Bitcoin finds itself caught between two competing narratives. One camp sees the current weakness as confirmation that the cycle has peaked and a deeper reset lies ahead. The other views it as a painful but necessary purge of excess speculation before the next leg higher.<\/span><\/p>\n

What both sides agree on: the $70,000\u2013$73,000 range is the line in the sand. If it breaks, the bear case becomes significantly harder to argue against.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Disclaimer<\/strong> NFTPlazas provides trusted news and insights on Web3. The views expressed on this site do not constitute investment advice. Before making any high-risk investments in cryptocurrency or digital assets, please conduct your own thorough research. All transfers and transactions are carried out at your own risk, and any resulting losses are solely your responsibility. NFTPlazas does not endorse the buying or selling of cryptocurrencies or digital assets and is not a licensed investment advisor. Please also note that NFTPlazas may participate in affiliate marketing programs.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bitcoin is under mounting pressure in 2026, and the numbers behind the pain are becoming harder to ignore. With roughly 40% of the circulating supply now held at a loss, analysts and on-chain data firms are drawing uncomfortable comparisons to the brutal bear market of 2022 \u2014 one that wiped out more than 75% of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24077,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/nftplazas.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/1-1-6.jpg","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24076"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24076"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24076\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24077"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24076"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nft.runfyers.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}

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How Long Does a Crypto Bear Market Last? (Source: <\/span><\/i>Kucoin<\/span><\/i><\/a>)<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n